Prospect Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis in the Asia Pacific: Rational Leaders and Risky Behavior
Leadership transition and China's future crisis behavior; Conclusion. Review quote 'Kai He provides an excellent analysis of China's inter-state crises behaviour in the post-Cold War era. By combining insights from prospect theory and regime survival theory, he offers a valuable analysis of a crucial set of cases in a rigorous fashion. This book is not only useful for Sinologists, but also for anyone interested in China's sometimes enigmatic behaviour in its relations with other states.
Paul, James McGill Professor of International Relations, McGill University, Montreal 'Kai He's cutting edge study of Chinese crisis management is essential reading for students of Chinese foreign policy as well as anyone seeking insights into an increasingly assertive twenty-first century China.
China's Crisis Behavior operationalizes an elegant and innovative theoretical framework to examine a timely and critically important topic for Asia and the world. This pioneering volume provides comprehensive and authoritative treatment of multiple cases of Chinese crises spanning a twenty-year period under three different paramount Chinese leaders, including current President Xi Jinping. Highly recommended. In this astute, original book, Kai He argues that nothing about Chinese leaders' international crises behavior can be understood without grasping how they see their prospect for political survival.
Their perceptions of gains and losses are shaped by international pressure, the severity of the crisis, and the leaders' domestic authority which combine to define China's responses.
Political Survival and China’s Crisis Behavior: Three Maritime Cases
With a concern for the choices of individual leaders in crisis situations, Kai He cleverly puts to the task prospect theory, the most influential descriptive theory of decision making under risk, and relies on a wealth of fresh sources to help us understand how Chinese leaders are likely to behave when the next crisis erupts. For anyone interested in China's rise, crisis diplomacy and the political psychology of strategy, this is an essential read.
By examining major events in Asian security, this book investigates why and how leaders make risky and seemingly irrational decisions in international politics. The authors take the innovative step of integrating the neoclassical realist framework in political science and prospect theory in psychology. Their analysis suggests that political leaders are more likely to take risky actions when their vital interests and political legitimacy are seriously threatened.
For each case, the authors first discuss the weaknesses of some of the prevailing arguments, mainly from rationalist and constructivist theorizing, and then offer an alternative explanation based on their political legitimacy-prospect theory model.
This pioneering book tests and expands prospect theory to the study of Asian security and challenges traditional, expected-utility-based, rationalist theories of foreign policy behavior. The International Relations of Northeast Asia. Samuel S. Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia.
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